Taper Tantrum VS the Stock Market. (KLSE & U.S)

bull

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run

bear

Every trader knows
That the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep

**ALL CHARTS SHOWN AND WORDS WRITTEN ARE ONLY FOR ILLUSTRATION EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. ALL INDICES AND STOCKS SHOWN ARE JUST FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES WITH NO BUY OR SELL CALL BUT JUST A PURE EDUCATIONAL THOUGHTS. SUBSCRIBE TO The Three /// Lines Trader Newsletter TO READ MORE**

Taper Tantrum VS The Stock Market

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  • “Taper tantrum refers to the 2013 collective reactionary panic that triggered a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, after investors learned that the Federal Reserve was slowly putting the brakes on its quantitative easing (QE) program.”
  • The U.S DJIA went for a sharp retracement recently from its historical high 36,952pts after triggered from the news of taper tantrum.
  • As the stock market does not move up on a straight line, market retracement is always healthy and news will always be there to trigger the volatility.
  • When investor do not know the word ‘tapering’ is either because they have forgotten about the Year 2013 Tapering after the Year 2008 Global Stock Market Crisis, or they never experience that period of years of Bull Market.
  • Either way market noises will always be there to cause volatility in the stock market regardless for the upside or downside.
  • Technically the U.S DJIA index remains supported at its Major Sideways Support1 & 2 and is sideways traded since Year 2021.
  • Will the DJIA move sideways consolidated before gradually resume its uptrend price action towards its historical high resistant we will see it in a matter of time.
  • As the only downside risk yet to be seen is to see the DJIA breaking down below its major support that will then shift into a major trend reversal not only on the U.S stock market but globally. But again until its evidently shown on its price action else this is just another round of healthy retracement seen along since Year 2020 to date.
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  • Likewise the U.S S&P 500 Index recent sharp retracement from its high ended at its Major Sideways Support 2 and could possibly see a consolidated sideways movement before gradually resume its uptrend price action.
  • Only downside risk is to see the index breaking down below its major support and that will shift the market trend into a mid term longer retracement that can run for months.
  • Again until its evidently proven, the recent retracement will be just like how it occurred since Year 2020 to date.
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  • The U.S NASDAQ index recent sharp retracement from its resistant high ended at its Major Support 1 & 2 and is expected to stay consolidated sideways before resuming its gradual uptrend price action performance.
  • Only downside risk is to see the index breaking down below its Major Sideways Support that will shift the trend into a longer mid term retracement that can last for months which has yet to happen.
  • Again until its evidently proven, the recent retracement will be just like how it occurred since Year 2020 to date.

Rallied High Stocks Showing Major Trend Reversal?

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  • Whether the index soar +10% or slump -10% what matters is the stocks you are holding in your portfolio.
  • Not all stocks are good to hold especially those that showed a Major Trend Reversal.
  • Some stocks like TESLA that did not void its Macro Trend tend to get supported and consolidated sideways before resuming its price action uptrend in the coming weeks to months.
  • Certainly unless its price action has voided its Macro trend, that will risk shifting its trend into a long term downtrend formation which you won’t want to hold in your portfolio.
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  • Whether the index soar +10% or slump -10% what matters is the stocks you are holding in your portfolio.
  • Not all stocks are good to hold especially those that showed a Major Trend Reversal.
  • Some stocks like APPLE that did not void its Macro Trend tend to get supported and consolidated sideways before resuming its price action uptrend in the coming weeks to months.
  • Certainly unless its price action has voided its Macro trend, that will risk shifting its trend into a long term downtrend formation which you won’t want to hold in your portfolio.
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  • Whether the index soar +10% or slump -10% what matters is the stocks you are holding in your portfolio.
  • Stocks like TWITTER that shown a Major Trend Reversal since many months ago are stocks to avoid having in your portfolio unless you are just doing short term trading activities for its rebound.
  • Hence know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
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  • Whether the index soar +10% or slump -10% what matters is the stocks you are holding in your portfolio.
  • Stocks like NETFLIX that shown a Major Trend Reversal since many months ago are stocks to avoid having in your portfolio unless you are just doing short term trading activities for its rebound.
  • Hence know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.

Malaysia KLSE Taper Tantrum

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  • The Malaysia FBMKLCI technical and trend analysis has always been constant since Year 2020 as it entered into a Major Sideways Trend since Year 2020 to date.
  • When a days comes to see the index trading above its midpoint or psychological resistant 1,600 you will see more upside potential on the index.
  • Again unless you are holding onto blue chip stocks linked to the FBMKLCI else its pretty irrelevant for you. But of course being a major index it paints the general health of a country’s stock market.
  • Again index performance does not guarantee your portfolio stock’s performance.
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  • Unless you are very fond into holding blue chip stocks for a very long term then banking stocks have all been a showing a healthy and gradual uptrend performance since Year 2021 without and shift of trend seen.
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  • Unless you are very fond into holding blue chip stocks for a very long term then banking stocks have all been a showing a healthy and gradual uptrend performance since Year 2021 without and shift of trend seen.

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  • The Malaysia FBMSCAP Index on the small caps stocks performance has been in a retracement since October 2021 and to date on the recent weak sentiment we continue to see the index retrace towards its Macro Sideways Support once again.
  • So long a further consolidation on the index is seen eventually a strong price action is still needed to be seen on the index pending for a technical trend crossover for a rally.
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  • The KLSE Technology Index that have been in a retracement following the U.S NASDAQ Index has now reached its Macro Sideways Support1 now and is expected to consolidate sideways for a period of time before we can see a potential upward rally on the index itself.
  • Again now major downside risk seen unless the Macro Sideways Supports are being broken down in the near future.

Recent Big & Mid Caps Technology Stocks been dropping. Can I BUY?

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  • Year 2021 1st QR investor/trader love to ask if gloves and healthcare stocks can still be invested.
  • As since September 2020 a trend reversal has occurred that leads to a Major Trend Reversal that occurred in March 2021, these stocks have since fallen into a long term downtrend price action.
  • Unless you are trading for their short term trading activities for the rebound else avoid holding into an already rallied high stock and has shifted into a major trend reversal.
  • Hence know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.

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  • Year 2021 Q1 investor/trader love to ask if gloves and healthcare stocks can still be invested.
  • As since September 2020 a trend reversal has occurred that leads to a Major Trend Reversal that occurred in March 2021, these stocks have since fallen into a long term downtrend price action.
  • Unless you are trading for their short term trading activities for the rebound else avoid holding into an already rallied high stock and has shifted into a major trend reversal.
  • Hence know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.

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  • Year 2022 Q1 investor/trader start to ask can they buy into these big caps and mid caps of tech stocks that have recently plummeted down sharply. Looks like a good bargain.
  • As all things written here are for case studies purposes, just remember how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
  • Will a Major Trend Reversal become a confirmation can be seen in a matter of less than 2 months.
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  • Year 2022 Q1 investor/trader start to ask can they buy into these big caps and mid caps of tech stocks that have recently plummeted down sharply. Looks like a good bargain.
  • As all things written here are for case studies purposes, just remember how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
  • Will a Major Trend Reversal become a confirmation can be seen in a matter of less than 2 months.

Where have the monies flow to in the KLSE Market?

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  • Know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
  • All the stocks that matches our technical criteria, and investor/trader been saying its been a boring sideways stocks since Year 2020 or Year 2021. There goes the monies.
  • Understand the difference between having a Hindsight Analysis VS Foresight Analysis.
  • Hindsight Analysis simply means understanding the situation only after the event happened or developed.
  • Foresight Analysis simply means understanding the situation before the event occurred and with your set of technical skills and trading plan management, you plan for the plausible price action that will occur.

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  • Know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
  • All the stocks that matches our technical criteria, and investor/trader been saying its been a boring sideways stocks since Year 2020 or Year 2021. There goes the monies.
  • Understand the difference between having a Hindsight Analysis VS Foresight Analysis.
  • Hindsight Analysis simply means understanding the situation only after the event happened or developed.
  • Foresight Analysis simply means understanding the situation before the event occurred and with your set of technical skills and trading plan management, you plan for the plausible price action that will occur.

How to Scout for Yet to Perform Stocks?

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  • Know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
  • Look for stocks since Year 2020 or Year 2021 that have matched all technical trend criteria but has yet to rally high but rather sideways traded that investor/trader called them boring boring stocks.
  • After all it is all case studies here. For more read up do feel free to be part of ‘The Three /// Lines Trader’ Newsletter to understand how technical analysis works with your trading plan to score in your portfolio in Year 2022.

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  • Know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
  • Look for stocks since Year 2020 or Year 2021 that have matched all technical trend criteria but has yet to rally high but rather sideways traded that investor/trader called them boring boring stocks.
  • After all it is all case studies here. For more read up do feel free to be part of ‘The Three /// Lines Trader’ Newsletter to understand how technical analysis works with your trading plan to score in your portfolio in Year 2022.

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  • Know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
  • Look for stocks since Year 2020 or Year 2021 that have matched all technical trend criteria but has yet to rally high but rather sideways traded that investor/trader called them boring boring stocks.
  • After all it is all case studies here. For more read up do feel free to be part of ‘The Three /// Lines Trader’ Newsletter to understand how technical analysis works with your trading plan to score in your portfolio in Year 2022.

How about stocks that have been in their Long Term Downtrend Formation?

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  • Know how to differentiate between a Rallied High Stocks and have reversed their Major Trend VS Rallied or Yet to Rally high stocks and have yet to reverse their Major Trend.
  • For stocks that have fallen into their Long Term Downtrend formation since recently or for a period of time regardless of what sector of stocks they are, nothing is needed to be analyzed on them until evidently proven their price action has shifted their major trend then only we will slowly look into and study into them and will not be late at all.

The Three /// Lines Trader Newsletter, is a newsletter platform service that allows the subscribers to receive weekly extensive report on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) indices, sectors, and stocks on educational purposes.

Subscribers will be able to gain access into:

  1. Renewable subscription services for every month/every 6 months
  2. Receive weekly newsletter on the KLSE outlook using technical analysis.
  3. Understand the essence on becoming a Position Trader in the KLSE market.
  4. Simple and easy good to go strategies given for you to instantly apply and understand the technical analysis.
  5. In a nutshell you are INVESTING your money in this newsletter while you gain the knowledge + strategies + profits made from the knowledge
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New Year New Me New Goals, What’s Performing in the KLSE market in Year 2022?

bull

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run

bear

Every trader knows
That the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep

**ALL CHARTS SHOWN AND WORDS WRITTEN ARE ONLY FOR ILLUSTRATION EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. ALL INDICES AND STOCKS SHOWN ARE JUST FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES WITH NO BUY OR SELL CALL BUT JUST A PURE EDUCATIONAL THOUGHTS. SUBSCRIBE TO The Three /// Lines Trader Newsletter TO READ MORE**

FBMKLCI Daily Chart

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  • The FBMKLCI entered into its market retracement since mid of October 2021 retracing from 1,600 psychological level to its lowest at 1,475 in December 2021.
  • No major price action void on its Macro Trend Support as the index consolidated sideways and headed for a technical rebound towards 1,567 closing its GAP at 1,559.
  • As the index has remain sideways traded in a macro trend since Year 2020 the index will need to trade and maintain above its psychological 1,600 in the coming weeks of Year 2022.
  • Being able to do so will get to see the FBMKLCI forming into its Long Term Bullish Uptrend formation which was last seen in Year 2020.
  • Downside risk remain low until evidently proven 1,500 psychological support is voided as well as its Macro Trend Support is voided.

FBMSCAP Daily Chart

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  • The FBMSCAP Index that plays a major role in the KLSE mid-small caps performance similarly has entered into a market retracement since mid of October 2021.
  • Throughout its retracement no Macro Sideways Support is being voided and the index has gone for a comfort technical rebound.
  • We will need to see the index to trade above its midpoint in order to see even more robust performance on the small caps sector in Year 2022.
  • Downside risk remain low until evidently proven its Macro Sideways Support is voided.

New Year New Me New Goals

New Year New Me New Goals for Year 2022, what’s the take for everyone to achieve a robust portfolio performance in Year 2022? Unlearn and relearn. Learn the essence of Technical Analysis as it is not a crystal ball but a tool to assist trader/investor to understand the price action in the financial market and stocks. There are up to hundreds of different indicators in the Technical Analysis and you just need a few to assist. There are no magical indicators as all are just lagging indicators based on price and volume. Hence understand what is price action and most importantly how you can understand the Macro Trend of the past and current trend on the market and stocks. There are only 3 types not 4 types of trend. An Uptrend, Downtrend, and Sideways Trend. Relearn and understand that fundamental analysis is just a tool to assist us. Do no need to dwell deeply into it as fundamental is just reading past news and anticipating for the future. Understand what the smart monies and institution and retail monies are doing in the price action of the technical analysis and from there is where you design your Trading Plan.

Cherry Picking Beaten Down Stocks

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  • Understand how to apply technical analysis to understand the past and current macro trend of the stock using just a few indicators.
  • A stock that has shifted into its Long Term Downtrend formation will remain in its downtrend formation going for lower low over a long period of time.
  • A long term downtrend stock is only suitable for short term rebound trades as the price does not fall on a straight line.
  • Generally a stock that has entered into a long term downtrend formation will remain as it is until evidently proven a shift of macro trend has occurred. Else a downtrend stock even with fundamental and news will remain irrelevant.
  • By then if its macro trend is shifted we can slowly look into them and consider into them and all news and fundamental will be relevant.
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  • Even when it comes to the darling penny stocks everyone must know what is its past and current trend through technical analysis.
  • Do not go for a new year new me and this time its price is back to where it used to be so it is time to invest/trade into it. Surely it may potentially go for a rebound only after all its being flushed down for a year.
  • Even a penny stock that has entered into its Long Term Downtrend formation will has its days of rebound.
  • Will it rally like how it used to be in Year 2020? When one day you evidently see its price action has lead to a shift of its macro trend into a Long Term Uptrend formation just like Year 2020 then you will know. Other than that it is suitable for short term rebound trade only.
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  • Even the blue chip stocks that you think its cheap enough could not necessarily be a golden pick in your portfolio unless you are holding it for a very long long term years and in the KLSE market has no other choices out of the near 1000 listed companies to invest/trade into.
  • Else similarly even a blue chip stock that has shifted into its Long Term Downtrend formation will take a period of time to recover.
  • How long is long? When its price action has evidently proven a shift of macro trend has occurred.
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  • Therefore cheap does not mean it is a good buy. Define cheap as is it measured by the market price of the stock or the fundamental price of the stock? Everyone has their own different opinion.
  • Whether its a Blue Chip Stock, a Mid Cap Stock, a Small Cap Stock, and a Penny Stock, if its in a Bearish Long Term Downtrend formation these are stocks not lucrative to look into unless for doing short term rebound trade. Holding onto them only makes an investor/trader into a very long term investment.
  • Certainly one day they might make a come back. That one day is when its price action has evidently shown a shift of macro trend.

Where are the Performance Stocks in the KLSE market?

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  • Stock’s price action that did not void nor shifted its macro trend and remain in a Bullish Long Term Uptrend formation are all notably a good to go stocks.
  • Again it is how you apply your Technical Analysis to understand the past and current trend.
  • The trend can either be your friend or enemy. Make friends with your trend if you understand how to pick on and ride onto a Bullish Long Term Uptrend stock. Make enemy with your trend if you insist to choose on a Bearish Long Term Downtrend stock.
  • Not hard if you know how to decode.
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  • Stocks in their Bullish Long Term Uptrend formation but stayed sideways for a period of months or shall people call it a boring stocks. These are the stocks that can potentially perform.
  • No price action voided its macro trend. Even shall a reversal occur on these stocks you will know where to manage your losses. Comes back to your Trading Plan. You do not just buy without anticipating for the downside risk. If holding onto a downtrend stock in the long run can go lower low in the long run, then even an uptrend stock can do so when reversal occurs. Hence when it occurs what action do you do?
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  • The stock market will always play a new set of stocks. Stocks that used to be a superstar stocks might and usually do not last in the KLSE market. Hence either a retracement leads to a shift of macro trend into downtrend, or the usage of Rights Issue, Bonus Issue, and Stock Splits as a way to end their trend.
  • Something new is always fresh because the mass investor/trader are not familiar with. When usually the mass investor/trader is familiar with that stock, that stocks usually sky rocket a few folds comes with extensive news coverage to the point everyone get to understand that stock so well and THEN ONLY everyone if not chasing in to buy at the highest is at near the highest and getting trapped in the market cycle of retracement again.
  • Hence learn to apply Technical Analysis to spot for newly formed Bullish Long Term Uptrend stocks. Always learn to buy and accumulate at the early start of the trend and sell at the peak of the trend.
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  • Stocks that did not perform in a robust manner in Year 2020 and Year 2021 could potentially be the new superstar.
  • Certainly through the application of Technical Analysis you will always see what we been painting to you all these months.
  • Which is knowing how to apply and understand the past and current trend of the market and stock.
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  • Therefore every year there will be news headlines on “Market Crash”. As the financial market is drive by the emotions of Fear, Greed, and Hope, news are just one part of it to trigger these set of emotions.
  • There won’t be so many market crash every year. There are only cycles in the financial market which is a market rally and market retracement.
  • To score, is to know how market timing works and you can understand all of these through the technical analysis.
  • To score, is to understand the current health of your stock’s price action and its macro trend instead of their fundamental much.
  • To score, is to always know that the stock market is just a game. Either you know its just a game or you are gamed.
  • Have a very robust year of investing/trading in the KLSE stock market and may the Year 2022 be a robust wonderful performance for the KLSE market.

Year 2021 has been FABULOUS and Year 2022 will be ROBUST!

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The Three /// Lines Trader Newsletter, is a newsletter platform service that allows the subscribers to receive weekly extensive report on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) indices, sectors, and stocks on educational purposes.

Subscribers will be able to gain access into:

  1. Renewable subscription services for every month.
  2. Receive weekly newsletter on the KLSE outlook using technical analysis.
  3. Understand the essence on becoming a Position Trader in the KLSE market.
  4. Simple and easy good to go strategies given for you to instantly apply and understand the technical analysis.
  5. In a nutshell you are INVESTING your money in this newsletter while you gain the knowledge + strategies + profits made from the knowledge
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