Precious Metal Gold & Silver Year 2014 Outlook. We are not done being BEARISH yet since Year 2011

Gold Price Monthly Chart Trend Following

gold monthly chart-crop

The precious metal owns all the fundamental news and logics out there that we have to agree as it does make sense at all times. But we are just speaking from a Trend Following point of view here. We have been bearish on the precious metal since Year 2011 as we are possibly looking at the end of the 10 years of precious metal bull rally. Well what goes up will go down at a period of time. Looking at the bright side, it is also an opportunity to accumulate these precious metal at lower price since we view it as an ‘insurance to our currencies’. We’re going to put ‘Taper’ news aside and just go straight into the outlook for the precious metal in Year 2014.

The Gold Price has violated its critical support at around $1,400 (EMA50months FINAL Support) in earlier 2013, and it has never make it back above $1,400 (EMA50months). At this moment, $1,180 is the ‘super critical support’ for the Gold Price to sustain in order to make a recovery in Year 2014. However, failure to support at $1,180 will result in a new low created and this will complete the deathly cross formation on the Gold Price Long Term Trend. Eventually, it will be official for the Gold Price to begin its Long Term Bearish Market. How low is low? We can only tell in the near future when there is another Complete Golden Cross Formation on the Gold Price Long Term Trend.

Silver Price Monthly Chart Trend Following

silver monthly chart-crop

The Silver Price will be ending its 10 years of bull rally in Year 2014 IF $18.20 the ‘Super critical support’ is violated. This will complete the deathly cross formation on the Silver Price Long Term Trend. How low is low? We will talk about it when we see another complete golden cross formation on the Silver Price Long Term Trend.

U.S Dollar Index Monthly Chart Trend Following

u.s dollar monthly-crop

The U.S Dollar Index, complete deathly cross formation on its Long Term Trend was seen in Year 2003. Since then we have seen how the dollar depreciated. Thou in Year 2009 and Year 2010 we had seen the U.S dollar index making a small rally but there were no complete golden cross formation on the U.S Dollar Index Long Term Trend which leads to a false breakout. In Year 2013, we have seen the U.S Dollar Index completed the formation of the golden cross in its Long Term Trend. Important resistant to break will be $84.75 in order for it to kick start the bullish rally. So to taper or not to taper?

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William Au

(Position Stock Trader, Financial Speaker)

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